Know your gold and copper cycle

Exiting ?

If we close below 1075, we will be exiting all longs and sitting on the sidelines. We could be seeing a market reversal developing. Stay tuned as next week will give more insight into the markets next move.

The S&P was very strong all day but the volume was not and has been declining on the market advance. There is strong resisitance in the high 109 area. Look to take some profits as the markets need a rest.

Prechter%27s+Predictions+-+CNBC.com

Prechter%2

Publish Post

7s+Predictions+-+CNBC.com

Tis The Season to Buy GOLD!

And here is the forecast...and i am not talking the weather,

GOLD UP THROUGH 2009!

EQUITIES UNDER PRESSURE TILL Q1 2010...
TEST OF MARCH LOWS! Good luck everyone, i hope I'm wrong.

Its not all that bad

Well, bill gross had some very interesting comments this morning and I wanted to bring some of that optimism in play. If you were listening he gave his forecast for GDP for the 3rd and 4th quarter, strong growth in the neighborhood between 4-5% then down to 1-2% going forward into 2010-2012. Keep an eye on the next GDP and until then wait till we start hearing how we are going to test march lows and depression talk coming back, that will be the mark to get in on the long side. Im on the ride of this bull market and don't see anything more severe than a normal correction, a new declining trend until it reverses (I like to watch the summation index for clues of this reversal.

My thoughts are we will have a small pullback and rebound going into the end of the year which is in some parallel to Charles Nenner's charts below. At this juncture we see pricing breaking down from the rising wedge and finding support at a more medium term oversold level. Short term we are oversold and a bounce can be expected but we are in correction mode so we see more downside after that bounce. Most likely this is a "shake and bake" situation, shake those week longs out of the market. Earnings next week will likely cause some concern for guidance and future growth prospects. With expected 4-5% GDP growth expectations we should hear some positive comments for future earnings.

To much short term negativity.

Are we there yet?

Some say we are heading lower as spoken by the famed Doug Kass and the ever favorite chartest Elliot wave maestro, Robert Prechter. In addition we also have another favorite chartest charles nenner. I have included some of his charts he displayed recently on cnbc for reference. Take note that he is comparing this recent recession to the depression. Although so many backstops have been put into place to withstand such a devistating circumstance but it does beg to question how far off are we? Currently, many are awaiting a correction of some magnitude soon as we push above some very key resistance levels ie 1050-060 S&P, looking to breach 1112 which is 50% retracement. I also included a chart of put to call ratio that gives some hint to short term sentiment, note we are at a reading of 0.66 indication of complacency and there are to many calls/bulls. Would look for a pullback but a buy point soon after. Looking at Neners, 3rd photo i believe, he shows there to be more of a correction after the later this year into next year early 2010.

Market Top for Those who follow Doug Kass

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10590765/1/kass-market-has-likely-topped.html

Doug Kass highlighting his thoughts of a topping market at these levels.



Stocks bottom during times of fear. With the benefit of hindsight, the March 2009 lows represented a dramatic overshoot to the downside.

Markets top during times of enthusiasm. I believe that the markets are now overshooting to the upside and that the U.S. stock market has likely peaked for the year.

Dont Be Last One In

Here is a chart that says it all. It shows the amount of stocks in the S&P above their 50 DMA. The tops and bottoms mark market reversals, we are at a crucial moment. Dont want to sell? That may turn out to be a highly risky trade right here. Take a look...

Sell all longs up at these levels

anytime we are in the range on the SPX between 1000 and 1200, its time to sell. we will be heading lower from these levels. This is fair value based on next years earnings. So if we drop significantly below then its a safe bet to buy, however any higher above 1200, time to short.