Nitro Trend Forecast

One Step Ahead

2012-01-25T23:31:00.000-08:00

Looking back at our "One Step Ahead" in September 2011, seems to be on track and has worked out nicely.

Thought we would take another look ahead...

Last Hurrah For Apple?? Part 2

2012-01-24T21:00:00.000-08:00

January 19th, we eluded to a jump in AAPL stock after earnings are announced for one last hurrah. Now, with this run up in after hours, what to expect next? The stock is likely to trade up some more with morning cheer leading, but would watch to see how it finishes for the week? In the past, AAPL typically fades off in the weeks to follow so odds are high we see it trade lower. However, we will need the overall market to participate and be in lockstep. Look for the broader market close below the low of the previous day to signal a sell. Longer term AAPL trades higher, but intermediate there could be some negative pressure. Looking further out watch out for earnings in late April. Notice how their first quarter earnings typically are up substantially while their 2nd quarter is not so stupendous or rather lackluster. Although earnings were up substantially today, relative to previous 1st quarter announcements, it shouldnt be a total shock.

Under Pressure

2012-01-24T11:18:00.001-08:00

A close below yesterday’s low will confirm the sell and move toward a phase low .Ideally will look for a 50% retracement of this last up move with oversold readings. With this we will look for an entry point for those on our radar displaying some relative strength. Some we like are AMZN, POT, and MA. Our uptrend we are in should take us up for 18-19 weeks, with ups and downs along the way.

Stock Market Update for Week of January 23, 2012

2012-01-22T19:58:00.000-08:00

This market is absolutely ready to take a breather and it will. The great part of this powerful move up is the amount of positive signs going foreword. The ability of the market to press higher, with little opportunity to jump in, elevates its potential to go higher. As we said before, we are on an uptrend and there is no need to fight it. The conservative play would be to wait only for entry points to go long. Unfortunately, the news rules the markets right now and patience is going to help. Watch for news to clear the path. It will become more clear once we begin the week of trading.

Gold is good on pullbacks, longer term uptrend in play. Longer term oil should pullback, but in the near term look for a bounce. Euro looks ready for a test of the downtrend line then upward. This may be set up to bounce once they announce any news regarding the euro debt deals. This could be a market mover or a blast to the upside.

This Event Does Not Come Around Often

2012-01-20T23:32:00.000-08:00

Below is an event on the VIX that very seldom comes around. Notice whenever the VIX closes outside the bollinger bands it doesn't stay outside very long and we have a reaction. At this juncture, it looks like this could favor the bears very soon.

The Melt Up

2012-01-20T15:25:00.000-08:00

The stock market has been on an unwavering path upward and we still believe this will continue for several months. However, a phase low has been projected to come soon. It seems to have been pushed out with the recent melt up. This low can occur sometimes with a week or two lag. However, The lack of a noticeable phase low occurring hints to the underlying strength to which this market is trading. This melt up is impressive given the many uncertain factors out there in the periphery. Now that options expiration is out of the way we could see a meaningful move. The large number of shorts out there was concerning and may have played a large part in this slow melt up. Those that were short and are intending to buy back or cover their shorts will occur Monday. This melt up could be just for them and once they all pay up at the high price, it could be then that we see a meaningful move to kick traders in action. Now, as far as riding this melt up, it pays to see the outcome of the uncertainty out there. In the meantime, check back for new trading ideas.

Last Hurrah For Apple??

2012-01-19T09:30:00.000-08:00

Well, in the short run perhapes. Apple has earnings early next week and many eyes will be on it. First off, this is a great company and that is most likely an understatement. Secondly, I am still of the belief this stock will easily trade much higher by years end. I think that if earnings are a blow out, the stock could trade up on the news where its high then would see selling pressure come in. In addition, the VIX on AAPL is appearing as if this would be a good place to fade if there is one last jump. Now, i never trade what I don't know, I react to market moves. In this such case, waiting for earnings to be released and monitoring the markets reaction will give a better clue where it will go next.

Q1 FY12 Earnings Release Apple plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its first fiscal quarter on Tuesday, January, 2012 at 2:00 p.m. PT. Listen to the Audio Webcast

Looking For An Entry

2012-01-18T12:07:00.000-08:00

Well the market is looking like it will push to it monthly pivots. Right now 1308-1311 is topside resistance and where we likely will pull back from. This recent rally has put the hurt on shorts. Traders almanac showed high volume of shorts still there and will need to be worked iff before pulling back. Once we do we will look for buying opportunities. One to watch is POT.

Stock Market Forecast for Trading Week of January 16, 2012

2012-01-15T01:05:00.000-08:00

Looks like the phase low is beginning to take hold as planned. We still maintain and watch for a shake out soon. It is rather intriguing with timing of the announcements out on Friday regarding European downgrades. France and eight other euro-zone countries suffered ratings downgrades on their sovereign debt Friday, sparking renewed global worries over Europe's ability to bail itself out of financial crisis. Not good. More downgrades likely this year and next.
Greek Bankruptcy Threat Looms As Debt Restructuring Talks Break Down

We are looking for a close of last fridays lows to confirm a bearish sell signal and the beginning of the unraveling.

POT

2012-01-11T21:16:00.000-08:00

Stock Market Outlook For January 9, 2012

2012-01-08T11:07:00.000-08:00

It could be all about earnings and the Euro next week. Early in week the EURO will be in the for front as it looks ready for a technical bounce here. This may lend itself to help some limited broader market advance, but later in the week we should see a pullback to coincide with the phase low. The strength in the market should be viewed as positive going forward and drops will be buying opportunities. When we see a nice pullback, probably in the 3%-4% range, it would set up a nice formation to get some early calculations for the duration of this up trend. So far, it looks to continue out till early June. However, it is to early to set in stone as of right now. Currently, we have elevated bullish sentiment indications which are seen as a contrarian view. Odds favor the downside right here and will be looking for oversold reading to signal a good entry point. Right now looks like they want to squeeze the shorts out, which can have the opposite reaction for an even bigger pullback opportunity. Many stocks have gone parabolic and will need to be digested. For example AAPL and the nasdaq have over extended themselves and should see their stocks react similar to what has been seen in GOOG. Markets are also pricing in earnings with high expectations and if they do not exceed this could add fuel to the pull back. Be cautious with such bullishness around.

1/5/12 Stock Market Update

2012-01-05T18:35:00.000-08:00

A few weeks ago on Dec 11th, we highlighted on our blog the likelihood the market would push to test the highs of 12/5-7 with a possibility of breaking above to trap more longs. We are now here with negative divergences all around. With Bullish sentiment indicators higher than those put in November and a projected oversold phase low condition next week. Its almost a perfect storm and set up like the final stages of a Janga game. Its your turn now market!

Stock Market Forecast for Trading Week of January 2, 2012

2012-01-02T12:49:00.000-08:00

No reason to go long, yet. Patience will prevail. Do not be lead astray with those saying buy here. Better prices are on the horizon. Our system is watching for our phase low to be put in January 13-15th 2012, from which we will see a bounce. From there we will determine the length at which we will see a peak before the next phase low. Presently, the weekly chart is in sync and has begun with last weeks finish in the red just as we indicated in last weeks update. We could be set for a very nice move to the downside to flush out longs so be aware. Bullish sentiment is at elevated levels adding to the potential of a crescendo low. The news will be the driver of how it reacts. Here is a weekly chart, its poised to continue the pull back from last week.

Bullish on GLD and SLV

2011-12-28T18:28:00.001-08:00

OIL CME TLT

2011-12-27T00:14:00.000-08:00

The Fear Index Is In Disagreement

2011-12-26T22:35:00.000-08:00

Well, the fear index is not in agreement with the stock market action. This is a strong indication of foreshadowing the markets next move. This is not in any way going to provide support for future gains in the market. Also, note the low volume. Hedge fund managers are away for the next few weeks and dont expect rational moves. Best bet is to be on the sidelines till balance can come back to the market.

VXX...

Market Outlook for Week of 12/26/11 AAPL SPX UPS FDX TNA FAZ

2011-12-23T20:02:00.000-08:00

We anticipated a Santa claus rally this week which would only serve to provide confidence for the Christmas shoppers. We are beginning to see signs of weakness in many stocks that have trickled their way higher. The downward pressure and the end of the minor up phase is already beginning to show with many stocks which are highlighted below. Be cautious and patient as we tread through rough markets ahead. We will eventually see the light, but not yet. Happy Holidays!

TNA...

FDX...

UPS

AAPL...

SPX...

FAZ...

BRCM...

2011-12-21T22:52:00.001-08:00

POT...

2011-12-21T22:46:00.001-08:00

Bullish Sentiment at Extremes

2011-12-20T21:05:00.002-08:00

VIX is signaling it will begin to reverse and head higher soon, putting pressure on the stock market. We also have extreme bullish readings on investors. Not a time to look for new long positions.

Tis The Season To Watch Out For The Bear

2011-12-20T18:52:00.000-08:00

Well, as we indicated last week watch out for volatility and we sure are in the midst of such action. However, not surprised at the path we are on cause our system tells us which phase we are in. Be careful not to get overly confident that the stock market has bottomed and its heading higher, cause its not. Would not stand on that rug to long, it just may get pulled right from under you. The easy money will be on the downside after the Christmas rally, which BTW may start as soon as tomorrow. So, be cautious of long positions. Best bet is to sit on hands till January cause the whipsaws will just shake out weak hands. We should get some clues soon that we are heading lower. So far, the VIX is waiving a red flag. If we see the VIX up while the market is up in the next few days, that will be the hint.

WYNN...

2011-12-18T15:52:00.000-08:00

WYNN should be poised to rebound with the caveat that markets are not set up for major upside gains until next month, but we could be set for a Santa Claus Rally.

Outlook for Week of 12/18/12

2011-12-17T10:39:00.000-08:00

This week-We have a mini phase top projected for this week, watch for Dec 21st. Markets should exhibit a negative posture at this point and reverse to the projected phase low in mid January. Looking Ahead - Although stock markets have been gyrating in this "Going No Where" zone for several months, we are still focused on the new uptrend that began in November when the S&P thrust indicators blasted through resistance zones. The negative stock market phase we are currently under since October 28th will come to an extreme/maximum mid January, so any upside potentials are still limited. Our system has been forecasting a resumption of the November uptrend in January 13-15. Stock Market should be under negative pressure for the next 4 weeks.

VIX wants higher

2011-12-15T13:04:00.001-08:00

Market action is showing no strength. Many stocks with potential strength are not following through. Watch the Vix here. Look for short opportunities going into the new year. Wouldn't expect much upside, if any.

GLD...

2011-12-14T12:54:00.000-08:00

GLD is displaying some bullish indicators. Keep this on your radar and look for a rebound in the comming weeks.

BRCM...

2011-12-13T22:18:00.000-08:00

BRCM...Looking like it wants to find support

POT

2011-12-13T21:04:00.000-08:00

POT looks interesting here for a bounce. However, negative pressure will be present till mid January. Santa clause rally may provide a bounce.

AMZN

2011-12-13T12:53:00.000-08:00

Remember this chart? Well, we are here now. Good for a bounce for the Santa rally...

VIX Winding Up

2011-12-13T11:05:00.001-08:00

Don't be fooled.

Is the VIX Saying Something?

2011-12-12T23:03:00.000-08:00

VIX daily

Outlook for Week of Dec 12th

2011-12-11T18:16:00.001-08:00

As we highlighted Dec 1st, markets are attempting to put in that last blow off. My system is signaling that this recent climb to tests recent highs will not have enough to push us further to the upside, but rather set up a lower high on the indicators. The energy is just not enough. We may break the highs of 12/5, however this will only prove to be a worthless attempt to fool and trap more longs. Watch this week for a topping pattern, volatility could be the term that best describes the next couple weeks. Some weakness this week with some Santa clause rally could be the path before the drop ensues. This looks like it could be the beginning of the slide toward the low forecasted for the second week of January, 13-15.
The chart below is a 4 hr chart and is showing some exhaustion soon, look for some sliding early in the week.

THE VIX

2011-12-05T21:01:00.000-08:00

Just as indicated in last post, this move is over extended. Notice how the VIX ignored todays action and was up while market was. Leads me to be suspect of recent market melt up. Also, notice that the stochastics are at extreme lows crossing upward. Not Bullish by any means.

S&P is getting rejected by the 200 DMA. Can we say third time is a charm!

Watch BIDU, looks like a nice drop from here if we get market failure. It even helps when Cramer likes it!

AAPL looks just as bad, I would look to buy at lower levels.

Its Show Time

2011-12-01T20:51:00.000-08:00

This Market is over extended right here right now. It has had a very nice rally so far, but way to fast. More upside may be likely, however right now it is saying to take a breather and gear up for another move. Markets will have their day, just not right now. Further out watch for the January effect, which should affect the market in a more positive way. Not sure what it will be, but lets hope the disaster of europe will be resolved or at least addressed and shown its true reality. It may cause for a flush of the system.

In the near term look for some down pressure in the coming days. After that its not yet clear if the market wants to push and test last weeks highs. It appears the market would put in one blow off top, perhaps after we let off some steam of this recent rally. I will be looking for some divergence if we end up testing the recent highs of last week signaling the energy isn't there any longer. Take a look and put AMZN on your radar. It appears we will have a climb out of these lows soon. Im looking for one last thrust lower then a rebound, kind of plays similar to our view of the intentions of the markets. Chart posted below.

Very little out there to be bullish about....

2011-11-25T20:50:00.000-08:00

However, maybe this is something to hint at a bit of a bounce coming in the near term. Again, not getting overly bullish at this juncture. The 4hr chart is hinting that some support will play out very soon. Once the market can rebound and set in a lower high we should most likely see this low tested or even taken out in early January. Till then take any bounce with a grain of salt. Hopefully, the markets can cough up a resolution to the euro debacle in the next month or so leading to a market rally. Interesting times for the markets.

SPY

AAPL

BIDU

Where Will This Market Bounce?

2011-11-21T22:51:00.000-08:00

The market action is sickly and does not look promising. As we have previously discussed, markets should put in some type of seller exhaustion some time in early January. With the market acting the way it is, looks likely we may see some lower lower lows. Reason being is this low is what one could described as a false low because it has sprung in to early. The thought going forward is a market rally i.e. "Santa clause rally" providing a false sense of hope for the bulls. However, this pressure the market is presently experiencing looks like it could go a bit lower before some bounce. Im watching where we bounce, in turn giving a target for the resumption of the downside going into early January. At any rate, any bounce can be considered false hope.

OIL....

2011-11-16T22:24:00.000-08:00

Volatility Is In The Air

2011-11-10T21:05:00.000-08:00

Look for continued volatility with what looks to be a consolidation for a set up going into early next year. The second week of January appears to be where the market is likely to see some bullish indications for a rally. Till then, market volatility will be the trend. Presently, the market is displaying some bearish contrarian indicators showing we could be in a negative pattern for a awhile. Investors bullish sentiment is at extremes. Don't see a huge decline forthcoming, but rather a buying opportunity closer to the end of the year.

Next Cycle Low

2011-11-01T22:52:00.000-07:00

Now that a cycle high was completed just as we forecasted, keep a watch out for a new cycle low projected in early January of 2012.

One Step Ahead

2011-10-27T22:11:00.001-07:00

Cycle High

2011-10-27T18:11:00.000-07:00

The projected cycle high comes in to play tomorrow and Monday. The market is most likely to change course in the comming days. Watch for a pop and drop tomorrow. Here is where markets are reaching extremes on many indicators flashing a sell. Additionally market sentiment has reached extreme bullishness and would look to take profits.

Watch the 50 Week MA for Counter Trend'

2011-10-24T21:59:00.000-07:00

Still a buyer on pull backs. We are in the neighborhood of the 50 week MA which may provide a buying opportunity. Markets seem to be pressing hard to the upside in overbought territory. Euro and GLD could also be looking for a pullpack soon. Not a long term seller till sentiment reaches extreme bullishness.

4Q Rally

2011-10-13T22:05:00.000-07:00

Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but there will be more upside for the 4th quater. Only a test of the 200 week MA. Notice the leader qqq, didnt even get down to the 200ma.

Back and Fill

2011-10-11T21:07:00.000-07:00

Markets are hitting a level to be cautious about. With what looks to be an Apex formation, a breakout to the upside would be a nice signal for continuation of the market. Since we dont have this yet, the market looks like its setting up for a test of the bottom rising channel with this possible back and fill situation. We expect further upside as we break out of the apex. More calls at Nitro Trend Picks.

Getting Lighter

2011-10-11T12:44:00.000-07:00

Lightening up on long positions and looking for entries at lower levels.

More Upside Still, Thank You Shorts

2011-10-09T18:23:00.000-07:00

Just like we highlighted on September 18th, pullbacks were buying opportunities!! One really did not have to go far to feel the bearishness, just sifting through twitter feeds I was sensing almost a unanimous bear camp. I never saw such fascination over a chart pattern as with this bear flag premonitions. With indicators showing such extreme bearishness the likely scenario had to be a upside resolution. The markets are presently ready to rip higher so again any pullbacks are still buy opportunities till further indications of an overbought condition present itself. Recently, the market experienced an upside reversal on October 4th and is seen when the Volume oscillator experiences an upside breakout. Of course not everything is for sure so there are many other forces in play and the market will need to provide rising bottoms on the oscillator.

Some Market Pressure Soon

2011-10-06T18:44:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow may provide for some crazy wild moves. Although the indicators are shifting showing some pressure is likely to come in play, the market still is left with so many traders short. If just an ounce of good news comes out or any hint for improvement, this market will rip higher. It will be a pivotal day and may show its hand. We will have to see how this week will close to have a better feel for the future. Our current stance is on the sidelines. We have enjoyed recent gains in our S&P, GLD, Euro/usd and BIDU calls. We do see market pressure soon so we have recently closed out positions to avoid any gyrations that government "manipulated" numbers may provide. Be sure to check for our latest calls by going to Nitro Trend Picks!

SPX divergence

2011-10-04T19:42:00.000-07:00

Cycle Low

2011-10-03T19:30:00.000-07:00

This week a cycle low may turn out to reverse the course of the market. It also is coinsides with extreme oversold readings on several indicators.

Searching for bottom

2011-10-03T10:03:00.001-07:00

Markets seem to be searching out a bottom and are likely to break the 1100 mark. October is typically a time where a bottom might be formed. From there the market should rise to year end.

Feels Like Fear is Everywhere

2011-09-30T10:21:00.001-07:00

I would have thought markets would tank. Perhaps there is an underlining message and the markets see the light at the end. We will see. If we can stay above the 200week MA that would give more confidence to the market.

Could it Be? The Euro looking attractive here?

2011-09-29T19:56:00.001-07:00

The Euro looks very interesting here. On many indicators the euro trade seems ready for a rebound. We highlight the chart along with BIDU under Nitro Trend Picks.

Tomorrows close is critical

2011-09-29T12:38:00.000-07:00

One Step Ahead

2011-09-22T17:59:00.000-07:00

Investors Sentiment Survey is at extreme bearishness.

Statistically bounces occur at these levels.

Below is the latest experimental indicator for our system. This will be posted as only that and not to be taken as a proven indicator untill we have it completed. Just one of the many new things to come.

Down day

2011-09-22T12:49:00.001-07:00

The markets are down significantly today. Our indicators are telling us to be buyers at these levels. We will buy tomorrow with a stop at 1100. Our system can show a buy even as fear sets in to shake weak hands out.

Was today an over reaction?

2011-09-21T18:41:00.000-07:00

Todays reaction could be characterized as over blown. Some indications of this are seen in the postings above. Look for support to come in soon. As an outlier, a close below 1146 could prove detrimental for any advancements.

Not Much Left On A Weekly Basis

2011-09-20T21:42:00.000-07:00

Here is the DJ transports on a weekly basis to give an idea where the market stands in relation to previous weeks. Why we most likely wont break the July highs anytime soon.

Federal Reserve Day

2011-09-20T21:21:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow will be a very interesting day for stocks. Days when the fed are in play the odds of success drop dramatically. Some indication of support are becoming evident. If we see a dramatic drop, that could present an opportunity for the markets to find support levels. As seen in the DJ transports chart, there is a divergence, showing some hint of support coming soon. The S&P is not showing a very dramatic divergence right here, but the transports seem to reveal more. In contrast, the market may also rocket higher if the fed news proves worthy enough. Most likely case there will be a QE3 at some point to provide a boost to the market-AGAIN!

Holding Above 200 Weekly MA

2011-09-19T21:35:00.000-07:00

Holding above 200 Weekly MA is key for markets to remain bullish. We have punctured through a couple times but remain above it.

Going Forward

2011-09-18T17:02:00.000-07:00

It seems as a pull back is forthcoming in the days ahead as we indicated end of last week. However, with this pull back, markets should find ground to push to higher levels. That support zone won't be determined till our system begins showing indications that markets are ready to resume their upward momentum. Keep in mind that we do see trouble further out so those highs in July will most likely not be broken. But, we wont know for sure until this counter trend rise becomes more matures. As for now bias is to the upside and pullbacks are buying opportunities.

Market Breather Something to Fear?

2011-09-15T18:38:00.000-07:00

We see market taking a pause in the next few days. However, looking further out our system is indicating a push to higher levels of which could be very abrupt and may see some choppiness for a few days. The medium turn is up with the longer term down as depicted by the monthly chart posted in our previous blog. You can also check out our recent updates to the Euro and GLD under Nitro Trend picks.

Strong Close

2011-09-12T18:54:00.000-07:00

No confirmation of the break of the lower uptrend suggesting that this strong close will support a push up. As we indicated this weekend the sentiment readings and the commitment of traders report both suggested we would likely see more upside. However keep in mind there are a tremendous head winds so any push higher most likely will fail and push this market to break its lows. But for now, the markets are resisting the urge to cloase below the uptrend.

Blame it on Greece

2011-09-11T20:40:00.000-07:00

Looks as though Greece will be defaulting soon. Futures are pointing to continuation of Fridays action confirming the bear flag. If we gap down look for 1040 for support. Add difference of low and high of bear flag to the break of the lower trend line to get support levels. Watching the open carefully.

The Bigger Picture

2011-09-10T22:20:00.000-07:00

Is It to Soon For A Market Sell Off?

2011-09-09T22:40:00.000-07:00

Market sentiment is reaching high bearishness which is typically a contrarian indicator. These levels of bearishness normally indicate bottoms. In addition, markets typically hit a low closer to October, setting up a more seasonality effect later where a better opportunity for going long presents itself. So, looking medium term we project a pop then a drop taking out these lows. Looking deeper into the short term market we see that the Commitment of traders is showing that the small retail investors are highly concentrated on the short side. Again, this is usually a contrarian indicator especially when they are so lopsided to one side. The recent moves in the Euro look overdone and a resolution to the upside may be in store. See Chart under Nitro Trend Picks.

Bull Bear Fight

2011-09-07T20:58:00.001-07:00

All signals point to continuation of this recent move up, but a bear flag presents a threat to this. With this bear flag present in combination with anticipation of the President's comments could result in the pattern playing out. Will be watching for a reversal breaking today's lows. Sidelines would be the best bet.

Looks like time to rise

2011-09-06T18:58:00.000-07:00

See where Gold is heading... Click Nitro Trend Picks

Bounce to be

2011-09-06T10:20:00.000-07:00

Expected. Levels are showing oversold area with uptrend in tack. Further analysis later tonight.

Counter Trend Resistance Soon

2011-08-30T22:36:00.000-07:00

We are approaching an area where we could likely see some resistance, near the 1240 area. Keeping a watch to see what occurs there. However, we have an overall upward trend in place so would look for downside to be limited for the time being.

1240-1270 rejection

2011-08-29T10:12:00.001-07:00

Looking for reaction and rejection of backtest at 1240 area.

Early Indications Show...

2011-08-26T19:07:00.000-07:00

the possibility of a blast off senario. The 10 year note looks to be an indication. Other system indicators are showing that Warren Buffet cant be ignored as an indicator too. The best case scenario would be to drop in a flash crash scenario but then rebound appruptly. However, i think most likely a bottom has been in place and tested. Once the government show comes to a close and can step aside then that will be the all clear. This could be an abrupt move higher.

Possible Downside Presure

2011-08-24T12:45:00.001-07:00

Watching Indications of a Bottom Soon

2011-08-18T21:40:00.000-07:00

As We indicated last week 1050 could be key. Support looks to be near 1010 - 1050. Once a flush out occurs, those longs will be bleeding and shaken out of the market. This is why i believe we will break our recent lows as discussed in our previous blog. Watch for a nice break and rebound. Our indicators are nearing the buy point but one last flush would prove as an excellent point to go long.

A Little Rest

2011-08-15T21:18:00.000-07:00

May see a bit of weakness in the comming days and would watch this carefully. Depending on how we pullback it may tell us what to expect going foreward. What I would hope to see is a pullback that takes out the lows and puts a higher low up on our indicators. This will give us more confidence that we can see a strong bottom in place.

Bounce to Backtest 1275 Range

2011-08-10T01:16:00.000-07:00

Yesterday we posted charts of capitulation as we saw extreme reading in the put to call ratio. We see this as a relief rally only and nothing more. Watch for a break of these lows to set up divergences signalling to us a true buy opportunity. We are not posting up or down call at this time due to the quick wipsaw action and are just focusing on short opportunities going forward.

1050 S&P Support

2011-08-08T18:27:00.000-07:00

Watching for rising bottoms.

Support levels

2011-08-04T11:19:00.000-07:00

We suspected there could be a counter trend relief rally but once we saw buyers were not will to hold for very long we recognized there would be more to come. support levels for the S&P we have 1220, 1200 and 1175, with 1175 being solid. In my blog this and last week I indicated we would not be long but rather looking for short opportunities which has worked great. We'll wait to buy at 1200 if possible.

A better Defined Area of Support

2011-08-03T18:11:00.000-07:00

By no means is the downturn over but a bit of relief is in for the near term. Watching for a top or resistance near the 1300 area as we back test the long term trend line support.

Divergences are showing sellers are exhausted

2011-08-01T18:12:00.000-07:00

Interesting movements in the markets. The inability to hold the highs of the day shows that traders are gun shy to hold very long. These times call for quick action and does not look good for the markets ability to rebound. However, near term a bounce is in the cards and the odds favor going long here then selling into any rallies. Look for short opportunities rather than going long as you saw today, those who were long only had a split second to take profits.

Signs are pointing for a bounce soon

2011-07-27T21:35:00.000-07:00

We should be looking for a bounce near this level. May be a bit early, but we should see support come into the market here.

Some Weakness On The Horizon

2011-07-25T22:42:00.000-07:00

Looking at some indicators there seems to be a consensus that some downward pressure is upon us. It would be more interesting and obvious if we see some divergences develope later this week by testing the recent highs. For now the charts seem to be stretched a little to the upside as an overbought condition. Look for a possible failure to break through the recent highs as an indication of more weekness and a chance to add to a short position. Following charts show the peak of some indicators suggesting possible weakness.

Some indications of some support here

2011-07-14T22:10:00.000-07:00

Keep in mind last week investors sentiment reach very high bullish readings indicating a top. I would look for a lower high to be placed in the next couple days or week with more room to the downside going into August.

Looking For Weakness

2011-07-05T22:19:00.000-07:00

System is indicating topping pattern could form for a confirmation of a top at these current levels. Likely scenario is we drop from here. However, we may test highs of last week, followed by a sell off.

Looking for Markets to turn course

2011-07-01T14:12:00.000-07:00

It seems that we are putting in the pop and drop. Overbought extreme are being met and would look to take profits and for a buying opportunity at lower levels. After the 4th there could be a change in direction. We will updat here As soon as a buy signal comes back.

Just A Bounce

2011-06-15T21:14:00.000-07:00

Indicators hinting for a bounce here. However, we are still looking for further weekness going into July. Looking for rising bottom patterns to form. Some early indicators are showing some support at current levels. Sellers are looking exhausted. The next few days will provide more clarity going into next week.

The Markets may top around Feb 24-28th

2011-02-16T20:53:00.000-08:00

Well, we sure had a nice ride these past few months. It seems to be a perfect time to watch out for a breather soon. We may see a capitulated push higher before it curls over. Time will only tell if it is something more than just a correction. For now, be cautious and look for a pullback soon....

Bullish % now with the cross of the 5 day

2010-11-10T22:56:00.000-08:00

Any follow through to the downside will give the bears more amunition. Be careful with your longs.

Let The Party Begin

2010-10-30T21:05:00.000-07:00

Bernanke was wrong while Peter Schiff was right

2010-10-30T19:55:00.000-07:00

Just Sitting back and Watching...

2010-10-27T20:48:00.000-07:00

Could it be a trifecta?

2010-10-26T20:51:00.000-07:00

Could a top Be forming?

2010-10-26T20:42:00.001-07:00

A closer look at the NYSE summation

2010-10-26T20:22:00.000-07:00

Short AAPL

2010-10-19T22:58:00.001-07:00

Good chance the nail is in the coffin. Would watch for a break lower.

No reason to chase at these levels

2010-10-06T15:42:00.000-07:00

Divergences running a muck

2010-09-29T23:43:00.000-07:00

Who Brought the Grenades to the Party? This May Be A Situation...

2010-09-24T00:48:00.001-07:00

Are Those Bulls I Hear or Just BS?

2010-09-16T15:54:00.000-07:00

News chatter is becoming eerily similar to when we were breaking critical support just weeks ago, but now its bullish banter and many are calling for breakout of inverse head and shoulders pattern etc...etc. Although this could be the case, we are seeing evidence that the current rally may be in for a little breather before resuming any upward movement. One interesting link here pointed to a reversal near this level as it did in 2000. Chart similarities are unbelievable and worth keeping an eye out. Also, looking at the Advance decline versus the SPX we can see a bearish divergence in the works (chart below). Lets keep our eyes open for other reversal signals out there...Just for example, the VIX.

Does This Baby Still Have Some Gas Left?

2010-08-19T19:29:00.000-07:00

Many are calling for a breakdown now that 1080-1088 has breached, but there seems to be some evidence that makes me to be skeptical of that view. See charts below...

This chart from the 18th but still holds value. The only caveat would be if we get a confirmation close below todays lows.

Bull or Bear Market?

2010-08-10T15:33:00.000-07:00

Be prudent out there!! Be very suspicious when you hear optimistic views about how this market will rocket higher. We still maintain our current position that we see upward pressure on market till end of august. However, this does not mean to load up on longs. We will be adding put positions or shorts with further out expiration such as September and December. Th tarp money came with instructions...buy equities. This money has been used to prop up the market and confidence; the owners are looking to unload these positions to joe public. They will make everything sound rosy but this is not a reason to buy high. We will look back to this time and see that this is closer to the top than the bottom. We see some pullback end of august or sooner. This will not be a grind lower like the market has done going higher, it will drop hard and quick. The vix is setting up for a bullish resolution to its divergence which would propel the stock market down(see chart below). There seems to be something still out there.

The 60 min ADX

2010-08-06T10:06:00.000-07:00

Keeping a close watch on the ADX as it seems to be looking for a massive move and change in trend...